China’s tactical play in Ladakh isn’t just about the boundary
Thursday, June 4, 2020 IST
China has amped up its presence along the Line of Actual Control around the same time that it is struggling with the Covid-19 induced surge in economic distress
In the wake of the economic slowdown owing to the Covid-19 pandemic in China, paramount leader Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are facing one of the biggest crises since the party came to power in 1949. The challenges before the party and the leader are being deliberated since May 22 at the National People’s Congress and a parallel Chinese People’s Consultative Conference, the most powerful political advisory body in the country. The move is already on to pre-emptively counter any dissatisfaction in handling the pandemic and the consequent surge in economic distress. While there is no political challenge to President Xi, who is also the Chairman of the Central Military Commission, it is the economic collapse that Beijing fears coupled with growing resentment against China, fuelling nationalism and the kindling of old Chinese fears against foreign threats.
While the NPC was called to deliberate on the next five-year development plan, the session will also provide a platform to President Xi to respond both domestically and internationally to the pandemic. The expected message will be conciliatory to the domestic audience, while the international assertion can be expected to be robust and defiant.
It is in this context that the current stand-off between India and China at multiple points along the 3,488 kilometre Line of Actual Control in eastern Ladakh and Sikkim should be seen. The Chinese move is multi-pronged as it not only diverts attention from the domestic economic crisis, Hong Kong and Taiwan, but is also engineered to paint India as a villain constantly at odds with Pakistan and more recently, Nepal. With China believing that India is catalyzing resentment against Beijing over poor handling of the pandemic that originated in Wuhan, the People’s Liberation Army’s tactical play along the LAC is also seen by its people as teaching a lesson to the “Gweilo Club” and its perceived proxies. The use of party tabloid Global Times to paint India as an aggressor in Sikkim and Ladakh also is designed to force India to reassess its strategy of perceived alignment with the US against China.
Even though the PLA is using a 1960 map released by then Premier Chou En Lai to present the cartographic expansion in Ladakh, there is little resemblance of the ground situation to either 1962 skirmishes or 1999 incursions in Kargil sector. The only coincidence is that President Xi may use the Ladakh military option to divert attention of his domestic audience, just as the then Chinese leader Mao Zedong used the 1962 skirmish to cover the massive Chinese famine due to failure of the Great Leap Forward revolution. Another Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping used the 1979 border war with Vietnam to divert internal dissatisfaction before embarking on economic recovery of the middle kingdom.
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