The current evidence suggests the virus has not undergone any major mutation
NEW DELHI : Even as scientists across the world, are racing to solve several mysteries around the new Coronavirus, the killer strain continues to spread, infecting over 7,783 people in 20 countries. MINT explains some of the key questions, which scientists are rushing to find answers to, in order to contain the deadly outbreak.
How deadly is the infection?
We do not know how the disease progresses in an infected person. Though it’s known to impact lower respiratory tract, its pathogenesis is unknown. The common symptoms -runny nose, cough, breathing problem, sore throat or fever, vary from case to case. Not all patients develop Severe Pneumonia, some recover following timely and adequate medical care. Researchers want to understand, what factors determine the severity of the disease, its case fatality ratio-the proportion of cases that will die as a result of the disease. So, far out of the 7,783 cases, 25 % have been reported to be severe.
How fast does the virus spread?
There is human-to-human transmission. So, an infected person can transmit the virus to other person, who comes in close contact with him/her. But how many can he/she infect? Will those secondary cases be as mild or severe as the primary case? Though, current estimates suggest one infected person can transmit it to two to three persons on average, an exact transmissibility or reproduction rate (R0) of the virus is not known. This is crucial to determine if the outbreak could become a pandemic.
How to detect the virus- the screening and diagnostics?
A person may be infected with the virus, but he/she would not know until the symptoms begin to appear. According to World Health Organization (WHO), the incubation period could be between two to ten days, and only a diagnostic test at the health centre could confirm the disease. But during the period, the person has the ability to transmit the disease to other people, according to China’s National Health Mission. This poses a challenge in screening the suspected cases at airports, which may be incubating the disease.
Where did the disease come from?
Though Coronaviruses were discovered as early as 1960s, some of its strains have never infected humans. Out of the seven strains, identified so far, only three have infected humans- resulting in a new outbreak each time- Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2002-03, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in 2013 and the new strain of Coronavirus in December, 2019. SARS-Cov was known to have come from bats via civets and MERS- CoV from camels. We do not know the origin of 2019-nCoV and how did it enter humans? This information is needed to develop a potential anti-viral.