Exporters of the fuel would enjoy bumper returns, giving a fillip to companies and government coffers. By contrast, consuming nations would bear the cost at the pump, potentially fanning inflation and hurting demand.
The good news is that Bloomberg Economics found that oil at $100 would mean less for global growth in 2018 than it did after the 2011 spike. That’s partly because economies are less reliant on energy and because the shale revolution cushioning the US.
Ultimately, much depends on why prices are pushing higher. A shock amid constrained supply is a negative, but one due to robust demand just reflects solid growth. Both forces are now in play, driving Brent crude up about 22 per cent this year.
1. What does it mean for global growth?
Higher oil prices would hurt household incomes and consumer spending, but the impact would vary. Europe is vulnerable given that many of the region’s countries are oil importers. China is the world’s biggest importer of oil and could expect an uptick in inflation.
There are also seasonal effects to consider, with winter looming in the Northern hemisphere. Consumers can switch energy sources to keep costs down, such as biofuels or natural gas, although not quickly. Indonesia already has instituted measures to push more use of biofuels and limit the economy’s reliance on imported fuel.
For a sustained hit to global growth, economists say oil would need to hold above $100. The dollar’s gain of this year doesn’t help though given crude is priced in greenbacks.
2. How can the world economy absorb oil at $100?
Bloomberg Economics found that $100 oil will do more harm than good to global growth. Yet there are important differences in the condition of the world economy today compared with 2011.
“The shale revolution, lower energy intensity, and higher general price levels mean the impact will be smaller than it once was,” economists led by Jamie Murray wrote in a recent report. “The price of a barrel will have to go much higher before global growth slips on an oil slick.”
3. How will Iran and Trump impact the market?
Geopolitics remains a wild card. Renewed US sanctions on Iran are already crimping the Middle East nation’s oil exports. While President Donald Trump is pressuring the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to pump more, there is limited spare production capacity. In addition, supply from nations including Venezuela, Libya and Nigeria is being buffeted by economic collapse or civil unrest. Still, Goldman Sachs analysts predict $100 will not be passed.