Analysts believe that a major hindrance to the Rafale’s success is that it combines a high cost with a very light and unspecialised airframe, meaning that for countries seeking out a high-end fighter, they will turn to look towards something heavier and with more capabilities like the F-15 or Su-35, while for those seeking a cheap medium or lightweight fighter the F-16V, F-18E or MiG-35 would be more cost-effective.
South Korea and Singapore selected the powerful F-15 over Rafale in the 2000s. In 2015, Egypt purchased 24 of those jets – with an option for 12 more – under a wider arms agreement with France.
The following year, in 2016, the two sides entered into a dialogue with Egypt possibly exercising that option, or even expanding the order up to 24 jets. However, even with high-level dialogue between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and French President Emmanuel Macron, Cairo and Paris didn’t finalise the deal. Instead, Egypt inked a deal with Russia to purchase “over two dozen” Su-35 fighter jets.
“Indian media is celebrating the arrival of five Rafales as if they won a war against China. If Rafale is so good, why Oman, Korea, Singapore, Libya, Kuwait, Canada, Brazil, Belgium, UAE, Switzerland, Malaysia refused to buy it. Besides India, only Qatar & Egypt have bought it,” tweeted Ashok Swain, Professor of Peace and Conflict Research, UNESCO Chair of International Water Cooperation.
Rafale’s third buyer, India, previously proposed to acquire 126 jets under Make in India and not 36. However, it took five years for even the first five jets to arrive in India after Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced it in April 2015 during his trip to France.
According to Snehesh Alex Philip’s opinion piece in ThePrint, beneath the celebration of the arrival of Rafale jets, lies the harsh reality of India’s painfully slow defence purchases. The Rafale deal and a plethora of procurement, now being done under the emergency clause in the wake of tensions at the Line of Actual Control (LAC), exposes the malaise that continues to shadow India’s defence procurement and planning. “Merely having a large standing Army or an Air Force with aircraft flying on an extended lease of life and without much use against modern weaponry of the enemy, cannot be India’s answer,” he wrote.
According to analysts, despite heavy marketing by the makers of Rafale, France’s relatively small and inefficient defence sector seems to have met its limit with the fighter program. The small production lines are unable to produce the aircraft quickly or efficiently and the French budget for research and development is smaller in contrast to the US or Russia.
The aircraft is priced very steeply and most nations prefer to buy US jets not only because of the technical superiority but also to please the Americans instead of the French. The Rafales have seemingly lost the fight in the international market, despite boasting of excellent qualities.